Modeling the Interplay Between Seasonal Flu Outcomes and Individual Vaccination Decisions
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology..
Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in the USA, and many people decide against it. In some early attempts to model these yearly flu vaccine decisions, it was often assumed that individuals behave rationally, and do so with perfect information-assumptions that allowed the techniques of classical economics and game theory to be applied. However, these assumptions are not fully supported by the emerging empirical evidence about human decision-making behavior in this context. We develop a simple model of coupled disease spread and vaccination dynamics that instead incorporates experimental observations from social psychology to model annual vaccine decision-making more realistically. We investigate population-level effects of these new decision-making assumptions, with the goal of understanding whether the population can self-organize into a state of herd immunity, and if so, under what conditions. Our model agrees with the established results while also revealing more subtle population-level behavior, including biennial oscillations about the herd immunity threshold.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:84 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Bulletin of mathematical biology - 84(2022), 3 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 36 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Papst, Irena [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
Decision-making |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 02.05.2022 Date Revised 02.05.2022 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1007/s11538-021-00988-z |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM336333994 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM336333994 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231225231916.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1007/s11538-021-00988-z |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1121.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM336333994 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)35099660 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Papst, Irena |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling the Interplay Between Seasonal Flu Outcomes and Individual Vaccination Decisions |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2022 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 02.05.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 02.05.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology. | ||
| 520 | |a Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in the USA, and many people decide against it. In some early attempts to model these yearly flu vaccine decisions, it was often assumed that individuals behave rationally, and do so with perfect information-assumptions that allowed the techniques of classical economics and game theory to be applied. However, these assumptions are not fully supported by the emerging empirical evidence about human decision-making behavior in this context. We develop a simple model of coupled disease spread and vaccination dynamics that instead incorporates experimental observations from social psychology to model annual vaccine decision-making more realistically. We investigate population-level effects of these new decision-making assumptions, with the goal of understanding whether the population can self-organize into a state of herd immunity, and if so, under what conditions. Our model agrees with the established results while also revealing more subtle population-level behavior, including biennial oscillations about the herd immunity threshold | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision-making | |
| 650 | 4 | |a SIR model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Seasonal influenza | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social psychology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Vaccination | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Influenza Vaccines |2 NLM | |
| 700 | 1 | |a O'Keeffe, Kevin P |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Strogatz, Steven H |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Bulletin of mathematical biology |d 1973 |g 84(2022), 3 vom: 31. Jan., Seite 36 |w (DE-627)NLM000348597 |x 1522-9602 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:84 |g year:2022 |g number:3 |g day:31 |g month:01 |g pages:36 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00988-z |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 84 |j 2022 |e 3 |b 31 |c 01 |h 36 | ||