A Hybrid Approach Toward COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling in Saudi Arabia Using the Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Model and Open Data Sources
Copyright © 2021, Ahmad et al..
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused the world to operate uncharacteristically for almost the last two years. Governments across the globe have taken different control measures to eradicate it. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) provides open access data for different countries on 20 control measures, including numerous aggregated indices. This paper employs the modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiology model to study the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. The modification has been achieved by including control measures and the infectiousness of exposed compartment. A hybrid approach has been used to estimate and incorporate control measures. Initially, a composite control measure has been derived from OxCGRT data to make an attempt to fit the COVID-19 pattern in Saudi Arabia. The derived model has proven to be satisfactory through statistical tests. Nonetheless, the model patterns do not resemble the reported patterns more closely. Hence, a second heuristic approach has been utilized to devise effective control measures from the reported pattern of COVID-19 from the Saudi government agency. A satisfactory model was derived utilizing this approach with successful validation through statistical tests. Also, the model patterns more closely resemble the reported patterns of COVID-19 cases. This hybrid approach proves more robust and ensures the validity of model parameters better. The R naught (R0) value with the current control measures has varied from 0.515 to 1.892, with a mean value of 1.119, and is presently less than 1. The threshold herd immunity, in the absence of any control measure, is estimated to be 47.12% with an R0 value of 1.89 and would end up infecting 76.32% of the population. The scenario analysis with gradual partial and complete relaxations up to December 31, 2021, shows that the peaks are likely to occur in 2022; therefore, Saudi Arabia must continue to inoculate its population to eradicate COVID-19.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:13 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Cureus - 13(2021), 12 vom: 07. Dez., Seite e20279 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Ahmad, Naim [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 05.04.2024 published: Electronic-eCollection Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.7759/cureus.20279 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM335630502 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM335630502 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240405232540.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.7759/cureus.20279 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1366.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM335630502 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)35028196 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Ahmad, Naim |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 2 | |a A Hybrid Approach Toward COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling in Saudi Arabia Using the Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Model and Open Data Sources |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2021 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 05.04.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic-eCollection | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2021, Ahmad et al. | ||
| 520 | |a The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused the world to operate uncharacteristically for almost the last two years. Governments across the globe have taken different control measures to eradicate it. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) provides open access data for different countries on 20 control measures, including numerous aggregated indices. This paper employs the modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiology model to study the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. The modification has been achieved by including control measures and the infectiousness of exposed compartment. A hybrid approach has been used to estimate and incorporate control measures. Initially, a composite control measure has been derived from OxCGRT data to make an attempt to fit the COVID-19 pattern in Saudi Arabia. The derived model has proven to be satisfactory through statistical tests. Nonetheless, the model patterns do not resemble the reported patterns more closely. Hence, a second heuristic approach has been utilized to devise effective control measures from the reported pattern of COVID-19 from the Saudi government agency. A satisfactory model was derived utilizing this approach with successful validation through statistical tests. Also, the model patterns more closely resemble the reported patterns of COVID-19 cases. This hybrid approach proves more robust and ensures the validity of model parameters better. The R naught (R0) value with the current control measures has varied from 0.515 to 1.892, with a mean value of 1.119, and is presently less than 1. The threshold herd immunity, in the absence of any control measure, is estimated to be 47.12% with an R0 value of 1.89 and would end up infecting 76.32% of the population. The scenario analysis with gradual partial and complete relaxations up to December 31, 2021, shows that the peaks are likely to occur in 2022; therefore, Saudi Arabia must continue to inoculate its population to eradicate COVID-19 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a basic reproduction number | |
| 650 | 4 | |a compartment epidemiology model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a control measures | |
| 650 | 4 | |a coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a infectiousness of exposed and infectious compartments | |
| 650 | 4 | |a oxford covid-19 government response tracker (oxcgrt) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a saudi arabia | |
| 650 | 4 | |a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (seir) model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a threshold herd immunity | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Qahmash, Ayman |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Cureus |d 2013 |g 13(2021), 12 vom: 07. Dez., Seite e20279 |w (DE-627)NLM24118083X |x 2168-8184 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:13 |g year:2021 |g number:12 |g day:07 |g month:12 |g pages:e20279 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.7759/cureus.20279 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 13 |j 2021 |e 12 |b 07 |c 12 |h e20279 | ||