Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant
© 2021. The Author(s)..
The novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 are a great global concern for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, how the novel variants predominate and replace existing strains remains elusive. In this study, I simulated the infection spread to investigate what kinds of viral, immunological, and epidemiological factors affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variants. The results showed that the increase of the transmissibility of the novel variant substantially enhanced the predominance probability. In addition, the increasing trend of the infection spread, the large case number of the epidemic, and the ability of immune escape of the novel variant increased the predominance probability. A small number of cases and a decreasing trend of an entire epidemic, including not only the novel variant but also earlier strains, are especially important to reduce the chance of the predominance of the novel variant and delay the process. Good control of the COVID-19 epidemic could make the disease burden small and sequester the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 novel variants.
Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
---|
Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
---|---|
Erschienen: |
2021 |
Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:18 |
---|---|
Enthalten in: |
Virology journal - 18(2021), 1 vom: 20. Dez., Seite 253 |
Sprache: |
Englisch |
---|
Beteiligte Personen: |
Furuse, Yuki [VerfasserIn] |
---|
Links: |
---|
Themen: |
COVID-19 |
---|
Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 24.01.2022 Date Revised 08.11.2023 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
---|
doi: |
10.1186/s12985-021-01726-6 |
---|
funding: |
|
---|---|
Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM334663717 |
---|
LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | NLM334663717 | ||
003 | DE-627 | ||
005 | 20231225224203.0 | ||
007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 231225s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
024 | 7 | |a 10.1186/s12985-021-01726-6 |2 doi | |
028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1115.xml |
035 | |a (DE-627)NLM334663717 | ||
035 | |a (NLM)34930336 | ||
040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
041 | |a eng | ||
100 | 1 | |a Furuse, Yuki |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant |
264 | 1 | |c 2021 | |
336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
500 | |a Date Completed 24.01.2022 | ||
500 | |a Date Revised 08.11.2023 | ||
500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
520 | |a © 2021. The Author(s). | ||
520 | |a The novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 are a great global concern for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, how the novel variants predominate and replace existing strains remains elusive. In this study, I simulated the infection spread to investigate what kinds of viral, immunological, and epidemiological factors affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variants. The results showed that the increase of the transmissibility of the novel variant substantially enhanced the predominance probability. In addition, the increasing trend of the infection spread, the large case number of the epidemic, and the ability of immune escape of the novel variant increased the predominance probability. A small number of cases and a decreasing trend of an entire epidemic, including not only the novel variant but also earlier strains, are especially important to reduce the chance of the predominance of the novel variant and delay the process. Good control of the COVID-19 epidemic could make the disease burden small and sequester the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 novel variants | ||
650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
650 | 4 | |a Epidemiology | |
650 | 4 | |a SARS-CoV-2 | |
650 | 4 | |a Transmission | |
650 | 4 | |a Variant | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Virology journal |d 2004 |g 18(2021), 1 vom: 20. Dez., Seite 253 |w (DE-627)NLM151772509 |x 1743-422X |7 nnns |
773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:18 |g year:2021 |g number:1 |g day:20 |g month:12 |g pages:253 |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12985-021-01726-6 |3 Volltext |
912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
951 | |a AR | ||
952 | |d 18 |j 2021 |e 1 |b 20 |c 12 |h 253 |