Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition : an agent-based modelling approach
OBJECTIVES: To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption.
DESIGN: We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing.
SETTING: We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the 'social transition' in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile.
PARTICIPANTS: A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico.
RESULTS: A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario.
CONCLUSIONS: Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:25 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Public health nutrition - 25(2022), 6 vom: 15. Juni, Seite 1711-1719 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Langellier, Brent A [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Complex systems |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 17.05.2022 Date Revised 09.04.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1017/S1368980021004833 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 09.04.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVES: To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption | ||
| 520 | |a DESIGN: We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing | ||
| 520 | |a SETTING: We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the 'social transition' in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile | ||
| 520 | |a PARTICIPANTS: A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Auchincloss, Amy H |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cardoso, Leticia de Oliveira |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Diez Roux, Ana V |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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