Risk stratification in heart failure decompensation in the community : HEFESTOS score
© 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology..
AIMS: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings.
METHODS AND RESULTS: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5-20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one.
CONCLUSIONS: The HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:9 |
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| Enthalten in: |
ESC heart failure - 9(2022), 1 vom: 08. Feb., Seite 606-613 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Verdu-Rotellar, José-María [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Clinical Study |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 25.03.2022 Date Revised 31.05.2022 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1002/ehf2.13707 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM333492390 |
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| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology. | ||
| 520 | |a AIMS: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS AND RESULTS: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5-20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: The HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Clinical Study | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Decompensation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Heart failure | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Primary care | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk stratification | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Torsza, Peter |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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