Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
© 2021. The Author(s)..
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally1-7. Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs.8,9), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening10, left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission. Here we use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the early dispersal of infections and the temporal windows of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and onset of local transmission in Europe and the USA. We find that community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was likely to have been present in several areas of Europe and the USA by January 2020, and estimate that by early March, only 1 to 4 in 100 SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by surveillance systems. The modelling results highlight international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, with possible introductions and transmission events as early as December 2019 to January 2020. We find a heterogeneous geographic distribution of cumulative infection attack rates by 4 July 2020, ranging from 0.78% to 15.2% across US states and 0.19% to 13.2% in European countries. Our approach complements phylogenetic analyses and other surveillance approaches and provides insights that can be used to design innovative, model-driven surveillance systems that guide enhanced testing and response strategies.
| Errataetall: | |
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| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:600 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Nature - 600(2021), 7887 vom: 25. Dez., Seite 127-132 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Davis, Jessica T [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Journal Article |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 08.12.2021 Date Revised 08.11.2023 published: Print-Electronic UpdateOf: medRxiv. 2020 Aug 28;:. - PMID 32676609 Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1038/s41586-021-04130-w |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM332359174 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave |
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| 500 | |a UpdateOf: medRxiv. 2020 Aug 28;:. - PMID 32676609 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2021. The Author(s). | ||
| 520 | |a Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally1-7. Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs.8,9), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening10, left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission. Here we use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the early dispersal of infections and the temporal windows of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and onset of local transmission in Europe and the USA. We find that community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was likely to have been present in several areas of Europe and the USA by January 2020, and estimate that by early March, only 1 to 4 in 100 SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by surveillance systems. The modelling results highlight international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, with possible introductions and transmission events as early as December 2019 to January 2020. We find a heterogeneous geographic distribution of cumulative infection attack rates by 4 July 2020, ranging from 0.78% to 15.2% across US states and 0.19% to 13.2% in European countries. Our approach complements phylogenetic analyses and other surveillance approaches and provides insights that can be used to design innovative, model-driven surveillance systems that guide enhanced testing and response strategies | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Chinazzi, Matteo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Perra, Nicola |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mu, Kunpeng |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pastore Y Piontti, Ana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ajelli, Marco |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dean, Natalie E |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gioannini, Corrado |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Litvinova, Maria |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Merler, Stefano |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rossi, Luca |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sun, Kaiyuan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Xiong, Xinyue |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Viboud, Cécile |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vespignani, Alessandro |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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