COVID-19 modelling by time-varying transmission rate associated with mobility trend of driving via Apple Maps
Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved..
Compartment-based infectious disease models that consider the transmission rate (or contact rate) as a constant during the course of an epidemic can be limiting regarding effective capture of the dynamics of infectious disease. This study proposed a novel approach based on a dynamic time-varying transmission rate with a control rate governing the speed of disease spread, which may be associated with the information related to infectious disease intervention. Integration of multiple sources of data with disease modelling has the potential to improve modelling performance. Taking the global mobility trend of vehicle driving available via Apple Maps as an example, this study explored different ways of processing the mobility trend data and investigated their relationship with the control rate. The proposed method was evaluated based on COVID-19 data from six European countries. The results suggest that the proposed model with dynamic transmission rate improved the performance of model fitting and forecasting during the early stage of the pandemic. Positive correlation has been found between the average daily change of mobility trend and control rate. The results encourage further development for incorporation of multiple resources into infectious disease modelling in the future.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:122 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Journal of biomedical informatics - 122(2021) vom: 20. Okt., Seite 103905 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Jing, Min [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 19.10.2021 Date Revised 21.12.2022 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.jbi.2021.103905 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM330234862 |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 21.12.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a Compartment-based infectious disease models that consider the transmission rate (or contact rate) as a constant during the course of an epidemic can be limiting regarding effective capture of the dynamics of infectious disease. This study proposed a novel approach based on a dynamic time-varying transmission rate with a control rate governing the speed of disease spread, which may be associated with the information related to infectious disease intervention. Integration of multiple sources of data with disease modelling has the potential to improve modelling performance. Taking the global mobility trend of vehicle driving available via Apple Maps as an example, this study explored different ways of processing the mobility trend data and investigated their relationship with the control rate. The proposed method was evaluated based on COVID-19 data from six European countries. The results suggest that the proposed model with dynamic transmission rate improved the performance of model fitting and forecasting during the early stage of the pandemic. Positive correlation has been found between the average daily change of mobility trend and control rate. The results encourage further development for incorporation of multiple resources into infectious disease modelling in the future | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Data integration | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Dynamic transmission rate | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Infectious disease modelling | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mobility trend | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ng, Kok Yew |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Namee, Brian Mac |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Biglarbeigi, Pardis |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Brisk, Rob |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bond, Raymond |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Finlay, Dewar |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a McLaughlin, James |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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