Evaluation of a Kawasaki Disease Risk Model for Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in a Japanese Population : An Analysis of Post RAISE
Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved..
OBJECTIVES: To test the performance of the Son risk score, which was created to predict coronary artery abnormalities from baseline variables in North American patients with Kawasaki disease.
STUDY DESIGN: The dataset from Post RAISE, the largest prospective cohort study of Japanese patients with Kawasaki disease to date, was used for the present study. With high risk defined as ≥3 points, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for coronary artery abnormality development were calculated. To evaluate the effect of each risk factor in the Son score, the OR and 95% CIs were calculated using logistic regression analysis with the presence of coronary artery abnormality at 1 month after disease onset.
RESULTS: Post RAISE enrolled 2628 consecutive patients with Kawasaki disease, and 304 patients had a high-risk score, of whom 15.1% showed coronary artery abnormality. At the cutoff ≥3 points, the sensitivity was 37.7%, and the specificity was 87.2%. The maximum z score at baseline ≥2.0 (OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.3-5.2) and age <6 months at disease onset (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.9-5.4), were significantly associated with coronary artery abnormality development. However, a high concentration of C-reactive protein was not associated with coronary artery abnormality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the Son score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.71).
CONCLUSIONS: The Son score had insufficient sensitivity and good specificity in a Japanese cohort of patients with Kawasaki disease. Among the variables comprising the Son score, a large baseline z score and young age at disease onset were significant, independent predictors of coronary artery abnormality development.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:237 |
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| Enthalten in: |
The Journal of pediatrics - 237(2021) vom: 25. Okt., Seite 96-101.e3 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Miyata, Koichi [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Coronary artery abnormalities |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 26.11.2021 Date Revised 26.11.2021 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.jpeds.2021.06.022 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM326949682 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Miyata, Koichi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Evaluation of a Kawasaki Disease Risk Model for Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in a Japanese Population |b An Analysis of Post RAISE |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 26.11.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVES: To test the performance of the Son risk score, which was created to predict coronary artery abnormalities from baseline variables in North American patients with Kawasaki disease | ||
| 520 | |a STUDY DESIGN: The dataset from Post RAISE, the largest prospective cohort study of Japanese patients with Kawasaki disease to date, was used for the present study. With high risk defined as ≥3 points, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for coronary artery abnormality development were calculated. To evaluate the effect of each risk factor in the Son score, the OR and 95% CIs were calculated using logistic regression analysis with the presence of coronary artery abnormality at 1 month after disease onset | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Post RAISE enrolled 2628 consecutive patients with Kawasaki disease, and 304 patients had a high-risk score, of whom 15.1% showed coronary artery abnormality. At the cutoff ≥3 points, the sensitivity was 37.7%, and the specificity was 87.2%. The maximum z score at baseline ≥2.0 (OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.3-5.2) and age <6 months at disease onset (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.9-5.4), were significantly associated with coronary artery abnormality development. However, a high concentration of C-reactive protein was not associated with coronary artery abnormality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the Son score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.71) | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: The Son score had insufficient sensitivity and good specificity in a Japanese cohort of patients with Kawasaki disease. Among the variables comprising the Son score, a large baseline z score and young age at disease onset were significant, independent predictors of coronary artery abnormality development | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Multicenter Study | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Observational Study | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Kawasaki disease | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Post RAISE | |
| 650 | 4 | |a coronary artery abnormalities | |
| 650 | 4 | |a risk scoring model | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Miura, Masaru |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kaneko, Tetsuji |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Morikawa, Yoshihiko |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Matsushima, Takahiro |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sakakibara, Hiroshi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Misawa, Masahiro |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kobayashi, Tohru |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yamagishi, Hiroyuki |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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