Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis : A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case
The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.
Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
---|
Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
---|---|
Erschienen: |
2021 |
Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:13 |
---|---|
Enthalten in: |
Viruses - 13(2021), 5 vom: 15. Mai |
Sprache: |
Englisch |
---|
Beteiligte Personen: |
Candel, Francisco Javier [VerfasserIn] |
---|
Links: |
---|
Themen: |
COVID-19 |
---|
Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 14.06.2021 Date Revised 11.11.2023 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
---|
doi: |
10.3390/v13050917 |
---|
funding: |
|
---|---|
Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM326119590 |
---|
LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | NLM326119590 | ||
003 | DE-627 | ||
005 | 20231225193916.0 | ||
007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 231225s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
024 | 7 | |a 10.3390/v13050917 |2 doi | |
028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1087.xml |
035 | |a (DE-627)NLM326119590 | ||
035 | |a (NLM)34063465 | ||
035 | |a (PII)917 | ||
040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
041 | |a eng | ||
100 | 1 | |a Candel, Francisco Javier |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis |b A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case |
264 | 1 | |c 2021 | |
336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
500 | |a Date Completed 14.06.2021 | ||
500 | |a Date Revised 11.11.2023 | ||
500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
520 | |a The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes | ||
650 | 4 | |a Comparative Study | |
650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
650 | 4 | |a SEIR | |
650 | 4 | |a economic impact | |
650 | 4 | |a health policy | |
650 | 4 | |a molecular test | |
700 | 1 | |a Viayna, Elisabet |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Callejo, Daniel |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Ramos, Raul |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a San-Roman-Montero, Jesús |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Barreiro, Pablo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Carretero, María Del Mar |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Kolipiński, Adam |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Canora, Jesus |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Zapatero, Antonio |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Runken, Michael Chris |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Viruses |d 2009 |g 13(2021), 5 vom: 15. Mai |w (DE-627)NLM192382764 |x 1999-4915 |7 nnns |
773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:13 |g year:2021 |g number:5 |g day:15 |g month:05 |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v13050917 |3 Volltext |
912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
951 | |a AR | ||
952 | |d 13 |j 2021 |e 5 |b 15 |c 05 |