Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
Copyright © 2021 Singh, Marinescu, Guzmán-Merino, Durán, Delgado-Sanz, Gomez-Barroso and Carretero..
This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.
| Errataetall: |
ErratumIn: Front Public Health. 2023 Mar 16;11:1180932. - PMID 37006587 |
|---|---|
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:9 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Frontiers in public health - 9(2021) vom: 31., Seite 636023 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Singh, David E [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 16.04.2021 Date Revised 03.04.2023 published: Electronic-eCollection ErratumIn: Front Public Health. 2023 Mar 16;11:1180932. - PMID 37006587 Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM323519997 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM323519997 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231225184346.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1078.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM323519997 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)33796497 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Singh, David E |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2021 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 16.04.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 03.04.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic-eCollection | ||
| 500 | |a ErratumIn: Front Public Health. 2023 Mar 16;11:1180932. - PMID 37006587 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2021 Singh, Marinescu, Guzmán-Merino, Durán, Delgado-Sanz, Gomez-Barroso and Carretero. | ||
| 520 | |a This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a face mask | |
| 650 | 4 | |a mitigation policies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a simulation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a social distancing | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Marinescu, Maria-Cristina |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guzmán-Merino, Miguel |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Durán, Christian |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Delgado-Sanz, Concepción |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gomez-Barroso, Diana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Carretero, Jesus |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Frontiers in public health |d 2013 |g 9(2021) vom: 31., Seite 636023 |w (DE-627)NLM23377548X |x 2296-2565 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:9 |g year:2021 |g day:31 |g pages:636023 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 9 |j 2021 |b 31 |h 636023 | ||