Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 : the COVID-19 SEIMC score
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ..
OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.
DESIGN: Multivariable prognostic prediction model.
SETTING: 127 Spanish hospitals.
PARTICIPANTS: Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.
INTERVENTIONS: Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day mortality.
RESULTS: Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%).
CONCLUSIONS: A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:76 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Thorax - 76(2021), 9 vom: 25. Sept., Seite 920-929 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Berenguer, Juan [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Clinical epidemiology |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 30.08.2021 Date Revised 30.08.2021 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM321909747 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 |b the COVID-19 SEIMC score |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2021 | |
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| 500 | |a Date Completed 30.08.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 30.08.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms | ||
| 520 | |a DESIGN: Multivariable prognostic prediction model | ||
| 520 | |a SETTING: 127 Spanish hospitals | ||
| 520 | |a PARTICIPANTS: Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively | ||
| 520 | |a INTERVENTIONS: Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression | ||
| 520 | |a MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day mortality | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%) | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
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