The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America..
BACKGROUND: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States.
METHODS: We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States.
RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.
| Errataetall: | |
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| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:73 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America - 73(2021), 12 vom: 16. Dez., Seite 2257-2264 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Moghadas, Seyed M [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 22.12.2021 Date Revised 08.11.2023 published: Print UpdateOf: medRxiv. 2021 Jan 02;:. - PMID 33269359 Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1093/cid/ciab079 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM320766780 |
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| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States |
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| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a UpdateOf: medRxiv. 2021 Jan 02;:. - PMID 33269359 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Vilches, Thomas N |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Kevin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wells, Chad R |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Shoukat, Affan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Galvani, Alison P |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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