COVID-19 : Does the infectious inoculum dose-response relationship contribute to understanding heterogeneity in disease severity and transmission dynamics?
Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved..
The variation in the speed and intensity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and severity of the resulting COVID-19 disease are still imperfectly understood. We postulate a dose-response relationship in COVID-19, and that "the dose of virus in the initial inoculum" is an important missing link in understanding several incompletely explained observations in COVID-19 as a factor in transmission dynamics and severity of disease. We hypothesize that: (1) Viral dose in inoculum is related to severity of disease, (2) Severity of disease is related to transmission potential, and (3) In certain contexts, chains of severe cases can build up to severe local outbreaks, and large-scale intensive epidemics. Considerable evidence from other infectious diseases substantiates this hypothesis and recent evidence from COVID-19 points in the same direction. We suggest research avenues to validate the hypothesis. If proven, our hypothesis could strengthen the scientific basis for deciding priority containment measures in various contexts in particular the importance of avoiding super-spreading events and the benefits of mass masking.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:146 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Medical hypotheses - 146(2021) vom: 15. Jan., Seite 110431 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Van Damme, Wim [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 28.01.2021 Date Revised 12.11.2023 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.mehy.2020.110431 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 520 | |a Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a The variation in the speed and intensity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and severity of the resulting COVID-19 disease are still imperfectly understood. We postulate a dose-response relationship in COVID-19, and that "the dose of virus in the initial inoculum" is an important missing link in understanding several incompletely explained observations in COVID-19 as a factor in transmission dynamics and severity of disease. We hypothesize that: (1) Viral dose in inoculum is related to severity of disease, (2) Severity of disease is related to transmission potential, and (3) In certain contexts, chains of severe cases can build up to severe local outbreaks, and large-scale intensive epidemics. Considerable evidence from other infectious diseases substantiates this hypothesis and recent evidence from COVID-19 points in the same direction. We suggest research avenues to validate the hypothesis. If proven, our hypothesis could strengthen the scientific basis for deciding priority containment measures in various contexts in particular the importance of avoiding super-spreading events and the benefits of mass masking | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Vanham, Guido |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Assefa, Yibeltal |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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