Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province
Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.
| Errataetall: |
UpdateIn: Science. 2021 Apr 23;372(6540):412-417. - PMID 33737402 |
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| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2020 |
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| Enthalten in: |
bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology - (2020) vom: 24. Nov. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Pekar, Jonathan [VerfasserIn] |
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Date Revised 16.02.2024 published: Electronic UpdateIn: Science. 2021 Apr 23;372(6540):412-417. - PMID 33737402 Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2020.11.20.392126 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM318355175 |
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| 500 | |a UpdateIn: Science. 2021 Apr 23;372(6540):412-417. - PMID 33737402 | ||
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| 520 | |a Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Wertheim, Joel O |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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