Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization-United States, February-September 2020
Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2020..
BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time.
METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of underdetection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity.
RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) nonhospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the US population from 27 February-30 September 2020.
CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning.
| Errataetall: |
CommentIn: Clin Infect Dis. 2021 Jun 15;72(12):e1018-e1020. - PMID 33274383 |
|---|---|
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:72 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America - 72(2021), 12 vom: 15. Juni, Seite e1010-e1017 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Reese, Heather [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 24.06.2021 Date Revised 24.06.2021 published: Print CommentIn: Clin Infect Dis. 2021 Jun 15;72(12):e1018-e1020. - PMID 33274383 Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1093/cid/ciaa1780 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM318046199 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM318046199 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231225164534.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1093/cid/ciaa1780 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1060.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM318046199 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)33237993 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Reese, Heather |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization-United States, February-September 2020 |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2021 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 24.06.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 24.06.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a CommentIn: Clin Infect Dis. 2021 Jun 15;72(12):e1018-e1020. - PMID 33274383 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2020. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of underdetection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) nonhospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the US population from 27 February-30 September 2020 | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a disease burden | |
| 650 | 4 | |a pandemic | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Iuliano, A Danielle |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Patel, Neha N |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Garg, Shikha |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kim, Lindsay |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Silk, Benjamin J |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hall, Aron J |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fry, Alicia |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Reed, Carrie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America |d 1992 |g 72(2021), 12 vom: 15. Juni, Seite e1010-e1017 |w (DE-627)NLM012603007 |x 1537-6591 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:72 |g year:2021 |g number:12 |g day:15 |g month:06 |g pages:e1010-e1017 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 72 |j 2021 |e 12 |b 15 |c 06 |h e1010-e1017 | ||