A Meta-Population Model of Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission, Clinical Manifestation, and Detection Within U.S. Beef Feedlots
Copyright © 2020 Cabezas, Sanderson and Volkova..
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not been reported in the U.S. since 1929. Recent outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries raise concerns about potential FMD introductions in the U.S. Mathematical modeling is the only tool for simulating infectious disease outbreaks in non-endemic territories. In the majority of prior studies, FMD virus (FMDv) transmission on-farm was modeled assuming homogenous animal mixing. This assumption is implausible for U.S. beef feedlots which are divided into multiple home-pens without contact between home-pens except fence line with contiguous home-pens and limited mixing in hospital pens. To project FMDv transmission and clinical manifestation in a feedlot, we developed a meta-population stochastic model reflecting the contact structure. Within a home-pen, the dynamics were represented assuming homogenous animal mixing by a modified SLIR (susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered) model with four additional compartments tracing cattle with subclinical or clinical FMD and infectious status. Virus transmission among home-pens occurred via cattle mixing in hospital-pen(s), cowboy pen rider movements between home-pens, airborne, and for contiguous home-pens fence-line and via shared water-troughs. We modeled feedlots with a one-time capacity of 4,000 (small), 12,000 (medium), and 24,000 (large) cattle. Common cattle demographics, feedlot layout, endemic infectious and non-infectious disease occurrence, and production management were reflected. Projected FMD-outbreak duration on a feedlot ranged from 49 to 82 days. Outbreak peak day (with maximum number of FMD clinical cattle) ranged from 24 (small) to 49 (large feedlot). Detection day was 4-12 post-FMD-introduction with projected 28, 9, or 4% of cattle already infected in a small, medium, or large feedlot, respectively. Depletion of susceptible cattle in a feedlot occurred by day 23-51 post-FMD-introduction. Parameter-value sensitivity analyses were performed for model outputs. Detection occurred sooner if there was a higher initial proportion of latent animals in the index home-pen. Shorter outbreaks were associated with a shorter latent period and higher bovine respiratory disease morbidity (impacting the in-hospital-pen cattle mixing occurrence). This first model of potential FMD dynamics on U.S. beef feedlots shows the importance of capturing within-feedlot cattle contact structure for projecting infectious disease dynamics. Our model provides a tool for evaluating FMD outbreak control strategies.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:7 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Frontiers in veterinary science - 7(2020) vom: 28., Seite 527558 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Cabezas, Aurelio H [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
Beef feedlot |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 17.11.2020 published: Electronic-eCollection Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.3389/fvets.2020.527558 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM317629093 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM317629093 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231225163649.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2020 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.3389/fvets.2020.527558 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1058.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM317629093 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)33195510 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Cabezas, Aurelio H |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 2 | |a A Meta-Population Model of Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission, Clinical Manifestation, and Detection Within U.S. Beef Feedlots |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2020 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 17.11.2020 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic-eCollection | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2020 Cabezas, Sanderson and Volkova. | ||
| 520 | |a Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not been reported in the U.S. since 1929. Recent outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries raise concerns about potential FMD introductions in the U.S. Mathematical modeling is the only tool for simulating infectious disease outbreaks in non-endemic territories. In the majority of prior studies, FMD virus (FMDv) transmission on-farm was modeled assuming homogenous animal mixing. This assumption is implausible for U.S. beef feedlots which are divided into multiple home-pens without contact between home-pens except fence line with contiguous home-pens and limited mixing in hospital pens. To project FMDv transmission and clinical manifestation in a feedlot, we developed a meta-population stochastic model reflecting the contact structure. Within a home-pen, the dynamics were represented assuming homogenous animal mixing by a modified SLIR (susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered) model with four additional compartments tracing cattle with subclinical or clinical FMD and infectious status. Virus transmission among home-pens occurred via cattle mixing in hospital-pen(s), cowboy pen rider movements between home-pens, airborne, and for contiguous home-pens fence-line and via shared water-troughs. We modeled feedlots with a one-time capacity of 4,000 (small), 12,000 (medium), and 24,000 (large) cattle. Common cattle demographics, feedlot layout, endemic infectious and non-infectious disease occurrence, and production management were reflected. Projected FMD-outbreak duration on a feedlot ranged from 49 to 82 days. Outbreak peak day (with maximum number of FMD clinical cattle) ranged from 24 (small) to 49 (large feedlot). Detection day was 4-12 post-FMD-introduction with projected 28, 9, or 4% of cattle already infected in a small, medium, or large feedlot, respectively. Depletion of susceptible cattle in a feedlot occurred by day 23-51 post-FMD-introduction. Parameter-value sensitivity analyses were performed for model outputs. Detection occurred sooner if there was a higher initial proportion of latent animals in the index home-pen. Shorter outbreaks were associated with a shorter latent period and higher bovine respiratory disease morbidity (impacting the in-hospital-pen cattle mixing occurrence). This first model of potential FMD dynamics on U.S. beef feedlots shows the importance of capturing within-feedlot cattle contact structure for projecting infectious disease dynamics. Our model provides a tool for evaluating FMD outbreak control strategies | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a beef feedlot | |
| 650 | 4 | |a environmental transmission | |
| 650 | 4 | |a foot-and-mouth disease | |
| 650 | 4 | |a infectious disease dynamics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a mathematical modeling | |
| 650 | 4 | |a meta-population | |
| 650 | 4 | |a transmission dynamics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a waterborne transmission | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sanderson, Michael W |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Volkova, Victoriya V |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Frontiers in veterinary science |d 2014 |g 7(2020) vom: 28., Seite 527558 |w (DE-627)NLM255535317 |x 2297-1769 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:7 |g year:2020 |g day:28 |g pages:527558 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2020.527558 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 7 |j 2020 |b 28 |h 527558 | ||