The impact of mask-wearing and shelter-in-place on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States
Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved..
OBJECTIVES: A hasty reopening has led to a resurgence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States (US). We aimed to quantify the impact of several public health measures including non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and detection of silent infections to help inform COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
METHODS: We extended a previously established agent-based disease transmission model and parameterized it with estimates of COVID-19 characteristics and US population demographics. We implemented non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and case isolation as control measures, and quantified their impact on reducing the attack rate and adverse clinical outcomes.
RESULTS: We found that non-medical mask-wearing by 75% of the population reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by 37.7% (interquartile range (IQR): 36.1-39.4%), 44.2% (IQR: 42.9-45.8%), and 47.2% (IQR: 45.5-48.7%), respectively, in the absence of a shelter-in-place strategy. Sheltering individuals aged 50 to 64 years of age was the most efficient strategy, decreasing attack rate, hospitalizations, and deaths by over 82% when combined with mask-wearing. Outbreak control was achieved in the simulated scenarios and the attack rate was reduced to below 1% when at least 33% of silent pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were identified and isolated.
CONCLUSIONS: Mask-wearing, even with the use of non-medical masks, has a substantial impact on outbreak control. A judicious implementation of shelter-in-place strategies remains an important public health intervention amid ongoing outbreaks.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:101 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases - 101(2020) vom: 10. Dez., Seite 334-341 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Zhang, Kevin [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 22.12.2020 Date Revised 31.03.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.002 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM316095133 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM316095133 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240331232207.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2020 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.002 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1358.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM316095133 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)33039614 | ||
| 035 | |a (PII)S1201-9712(20)32204-9 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Zhang, Kevin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The impact of mask-wearing and shelter-in-place on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2020 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 22.12.2020 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 31.03.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVES: A hasty reopening has led to a resurgence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States (US). We aimed to quantify the impact of several public health measures including non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and detection of silent infections to help inform COVID-19 mitigation strategies | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: We extended a previously established agent-based disease transmission model and parameterized it with estimates of COVID-19 characteristics and US population demographics. We implemented non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and case isolation as control measures, and quantified their impact on reducing the attack rate and adverse clinical outcomes | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: We found that non-medical mask-wearing by 75% of the population reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by 37.7% (interquartile range (IQR): 36.1-39.4%), 44.2% (IQR: 42.9-45.8%), and 47.2% (IQR: 45.5-48.7%), respectively, in the absence of a shelter-in-place strategy. Sheltering individuals aged 50 to 64 years of age was the most efficient strategy, decreasing attack rate, hospitalizations, and deaths by over 82% when combined with mask-wearing. Outbreak control was achieved in the simulated scenarios and the attack rate was reduced to below 1% when at least 33% of silent pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were identified and isolated | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Mask-wearing, even with the use of non-medical masks, has a substantial impact on outbreak control. A judicious implementation of shelter-in-place strategies remains an important public health intervention amid ongoing outbreaks | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Isolation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mask-wearing | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Shelter-in-place | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vilches, Thomas N |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tariq, Mehreen |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Galvani, Alison P |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Moghadas, Seyed M |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases |d 1998 |g 101(2020) vom: 10. Dez., Seite 334-341 |w (DE-627)NLM094730857 |x 1878-3511 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:101 |g year:2020 |g day:10 |g month:12 |g pages:334-341 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.002 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 101 |j 2020 |b 10 |c 12 |h 334-341 | ||