Trends in adaptation of fifteen European countries population to SARS-CoV-2 in March-May 2020 : Can Taiwanese experience be adopted?
Copyright © 2020 Formosan Medical Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved..
BACKGROUND: The purpose of the work is to analyze population adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 in Europe in March-May 2020, predict herd immunity formation in the nearest several months on the basis of our SIR modified epidemiological model of the virus spread and elaborate recommendations to governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic.
METHODS: Outer (1,006,512 RT-PCR tests results for SARS-CoV-2) and proprietary (34,660 respiratory samples) epidemiological data was used. Fifteen European countries were studied. Dates of research: March 2 - May 22, 2020.
RESULTS: As of April 21, 2020, the mean population infection rate (PIR) for the European countries considered, was 9.66%. It decreased to 6.85% by May 22, 2020. The model predicted 5.68% PIR, giving accuracy of 79.40%. SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities. A concept of effective reproduction number is introduced as a function of r0 with maximum at r0 = 4.671 and value reff. = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r0 = 5.539 and reff. = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode of SARS-CoV-2 containment. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes resulted in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values.
CONCLUSION: In case of a second wave of COVID-19 disease in Europe, it will coincide with seasonal common cold surge, spanning from mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021, with a median in November-December 2020. Strict epidemiological surveillance must be observed in Europe at that time.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:120 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi - 120(2021), 1 Pt 3 vom: 11. Jan., Seite 679-687 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Sharov, Konstantin S [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Herd immunity |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 29.12.2020 Date Revised 29.12.2020 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.jfma.2020.07.038 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 29.12.2020 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2020 Formosan Medical Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: The purpose of the work is to analyze population adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 in Europe in March-May 2020, predict herd immunity formation in the nearest several months on the basis of our SIR modified epidemiological model of the virus spread and elaborate recommendations to governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: Outer (1,006,512 RT-PCR tests results for SARS-CoV-2) and proprietary (34,660 respiratory samples) epidemiological data was used. Fifteen European countries were studied. Dates of research: March 2 - May 22, 2020 | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: As of April 21, 2020, the mean population infection rate (PIR) for the European countries considered, was 9.66%. It decreased to 6.85% by May 22, 2020. The model predicted 5.68% PIR, giving accuracy of 79.40%. SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities. A concept of effective reproduction number is introduced as a function of r0 with maximum at r0 = 4.671 and value reff. = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r0 = 5.539 and reff. = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode of SARS-CoV-2 containment. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes resulted in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: In case of a second wave of COVID-19 disease in Europe, it will coincide with seasonal common cold surge, spanning from mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021, with a median in November-December 2020. Strict epidemiological surveillance must be observed in Europe at that time | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Herd immunity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Human population adaptation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a SARS-CoV-2 | |
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