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Modelling SARS-COV2 Spread in London : Approaches to Lift the Lockdown

OBJECTIVE: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK

METHODS: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19

RESULTS: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone

CONCLUSIONS: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale

Comment in: J Infect. 2020 Sep;81(3):e70-e71. - PMID 32579981
Year of Publication: 2020
Contained in: The Journal of infection Vol. 81, No. 2 (2020), p. 260-265
All journal articles: Search for all articles in this journal
Language: English
Contributors: Goscé, Lara | Author
Phillips, Professor Andrew
Spinola, P
Gupta, Dr Rishi K
Abubakar, Professor Ibrahim
Full text access:
Electronic availability is being checked...
Links: Full Text (dx.doi.org)
Keywords: Journal Article
Additional Keywords: *Betacoronavirus
*Infection Control
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Child
Child, Preschool
Coronavirus Infections
Health Policy
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
London
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral
Young Adult
ISSN: 1532-2742
Note: Copyright: From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
Notes: Date Completed 06.08.2020
Date Revised 09.09.2020
published: Print-Electronic
CommentIn: J Infect. 2020 Sep;81(3):e70-e71. - PMID 32579981
Citation Status MEDLINE
Copyright: From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
PMID:
    32461062
Physical Description: Online-Ressource
ID (e.g. DOI, URN): 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.05.037
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520 |a METHODS: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19 
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