Model for a threshold of daily rate reduction of COVID-19 cases to avoid hospital collapse in Chile
Using a mathematical model, we explore the problem of availability versus overdemand of critical hospital processes (e.g., critical beds) in the face of a steady epidemic expansion such as is occurring from the COVID-19 pandemic. In connection with the statistics of new cases per day, and the assumption of maximum quota, the dynamics associated with the variables number of hospitalized persons (critical occupants) and mortality in the system are explored. A parametric threshold condition is obtained, which involves a parameter associated with the minimum daily effort for not collapsing the system. To exemplify, we include some simulations for the case of Chile, based on a parameter of effort to be sustained with the purpose of lowering the daily infection rate.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:20 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Medwave - 20(2020), 3 vom: 08. Apr., Seite e7871 |
| Sprache: |
Spanisch |
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| Weiterer Titel: |
Modelo de umbral de reducción de tasa diaria de casos COVID-19 para evitar el colapso hospitalario en Chile |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Gutiérrez-Aguilar, Rodrigo [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 03.06.2020 Date Revised 18.12.2020 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.5867/medwave.2020.03.7871 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM310503760 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Model for a threshold of daily rate reduction of COVID-19 cases to avoid hospital collapse in Chile |
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| 520 | |a Using a mathematical model, we explore the problem of availability versus overdemand of critical hospital processes (e.g., critical beds) in the face of a steady epidemic expansion such as is occurring from the COVID-19 pandemic. In connection with the statistics of new cases per day, and the assumption of maximum quota, the dynamics associated with the variables number of hospitalized persons (critical occupants) and mortality in the system are explored. A parametric threshold condition is obtained, which involves a parameter associated with the minimum daily effort for not collapsing the system. To exemplify, we include some simulations for the case of Chile, based on a parameter of effort to be sustained with the purpose of lowering the daily infection rate | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Gutiérrez-Jara, Juan Pablo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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