Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic : Preliminary Data from Portugal
INTRODUCTION: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-cause mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic period.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.
RESULTS: An excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths was observed. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65) [corrected].
DISCUSSION: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.
CONCLUSION: Despite the inherent uncertainty, the excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths [corrected].
| Errataetall: |
CommentIn: Acta Med Port. 2020 Jun 1;33(6):446-447. - PMID 32378507 |
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| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:33 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Acta medica portuguesa - 33(2020), 6 vom: 01. Juni, Seite 376-383 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Nogueira, Paulo Jorge [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Coronavirus |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 16.06.2020 Date Revised 18.12.2020 published: Print-Electronic CommentIn: Acta Med Port. 2020 Jun 1;33(6):446-447. - PMID 32378507 Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.20344/amp.13928 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM309276217 |
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| 500 | |a CommentIn: Acta Med Port. 2020 Jun 1;33(6):446-447. - PMID 32378507 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a INTRODUCTION: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-cause mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic period | ||
| 520 | |a MATERIAL AND METHODS: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: An excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths was observed. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65) [corrected] | ||
| 520 | |a DISCUSSION: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: Despite the inherent uncertainty, the excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths [corrected] | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Pandemics | |
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