Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:25 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin - 25(2020), 12 vom: 31. März |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Guzzetta, Giorgio [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 10.04.2020 Date Revised 28.03.2024 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM308196929 |
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| 520 | |a Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Marziano, Valentina |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cereda, Danilo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tirani, Marcello |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Diurno, Giulio |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bodina, Annalisa |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Merler, Stefano |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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