The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection : Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights
From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.
| Errataetall: |
CommentIn: J Travel Med. 2021 Feb 23;28(2):. - PMID 33398337 |
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| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:9 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Journal of clinical medicine - 9(2020), 2 vom: 04. Feb. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Nishiura, Hiroshi [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Ascertainment |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 28.03.2024 published: Electronic CommentIn: J Travel Med. 2021 Feb 23;28(2):. - PMID 33398337 Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.3390/jcm9020419 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM306276569 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Nishiura, Hiroshi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection |b Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights |
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| 500 | |a CommentIn: J Travel Med. 2021 Feb 23;28(2):. - PMID 33398337 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958 | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Kobayashi, Tetsuro |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yang, Yichi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hayashi, Katsuma |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Miyama, Takeshi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kinoshita, Ryo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Linton, Natalie M |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jung, Sung-Mok |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yuan, Baoyin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Suzuki, Ayako |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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