Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China : a prospective study
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ..
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a postoperative delirium (POD) prediction model for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).
DESIGN: A prospective study was conducted.
SETTING: The study was conducted in the surgical, cardiovascular surgical and trauma surgical ICUs of an affiliated hospital of a medical university in Heilongjiang Province, China.
PARTICIPANTS: This study included 400 patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the ICU after surgery.
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was POD assessment during ICU stay.
RESULTS: The model was developed using 300 consecutive ICU patients and was validated using 100 patients from the same ICUs. The model was based on five risk factors: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity; acid-base disturbance and history of coma, diabetes or hypertension. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.852 (95% CI 0.802 to 0.902), Youden index of 0.5789, sensitivity of 70.73% and specificity of 87.16%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit was 5.203 (p=0.736). At a cutoff value of 24.5%, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 69%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The model, which used readily available data, exhibited high predictive value regarding risk of ICU-POD at admission. Use of this model may facilitate better implementation of preventive treatments and nursing measures.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2019 |
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| Erschienen: |
2019 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:9 |
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| Enthalten in: |
BMJ open - 9(2019), 11 vom: 12. Nov., Seite e030733 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Xing, Huanmin [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Delirium |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 06.11.2020 Date Revised 06.11.2020 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030733 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China |b a prospective study |
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| 500 | |a Date Completed 06.11.2020 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 06.11.2020 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a postoperative delirium (POD) prediction model for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) | ||
| 520 | |a DESIGN: A prospective study was conducted | ||
| 520 | |a SETTING: The study was conducted in the surgical, cardiovascular surgical and trauma surgical ICUs of an affiliated hospital of a medical university in Heilongjiang Province, China | ||
| 520 | |a PARTICIPANTS: This study included 400 patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the ICU after surgery | ||
| 520 | |a PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was POD assessment during ICU stay | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: The model was developed using 300 consecutive ICU patients and was validated using 100 patients from the same ICUs. The model was based on five risk factors: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity; acid-base disturbance and history of coma, diabetes or hypertension. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.852 (95% CI 0.802 to 0.902), Youden index of 0.5789, sensitivity of 70.73% and specificity of 87.16%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit was 5.203 (p=0.736). At a cutoff value of 24.5%, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 69%, respectively | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: The model, which used readily available data, exhibited high predictive value regarding risk of ICU-POD at admission. Use of this model may facilitate better implementation of preventive treatments and nursing measures | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Observational Study | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a delirium | |
| 650 | 4 | |a intensive care | |
| 650 | 4 | |a models, statistical | |
| 650 | 4 | |a postoperative | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhou, Wendie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fan, Yuying |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wen, Taoxue |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Xiaohui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chang, Guangming |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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