Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissionsoup.com..
Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2016 |
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| Erschienen: |
2016 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:183 |
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| Enthalten in: |
American journal of epidemiology - 183(2016), 7 vom: 01. Apr., Seite 657-63 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Lessler, Justin [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Burden |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 01.08.2016 Date Revised 17.03.2022 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1093/aje/kwv452 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM257229191 |
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| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissionsoup.com. | ||
| 520 | |a Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a MERS | |
| 650 | 4 | |a burden | |
| 650 | 4 | |a clinical symptoms | |
| 650 | 4 | |a coronavirus | |
| 650 | 4 | |a severity | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Salje, Henrik |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Van Kerkhove, Maria D |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ferguson, Neil M |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cauchemez, Simon |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hakeem, Rafat |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jombart, Thibaut |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Aguas, Ricardo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Al-Barrak, Ali |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cummings, Derek A T |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 0 | |a MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Algarni, Homud |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a AlHarbi, Khalid |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Clapham, Hannah |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Collins, Caitlin |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cori, Anne |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Donnelly, Christl |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fraser, Christophe |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Garske, Tini |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Grabowski, M Kate |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mills, Harriet |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Moore, Sean M |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Nouvellet, Pierre |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Riley, Steven |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Truelove, Shaun |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Turkistani, Abdulhafiz |e investigator |4 oth | |
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