Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population
excerpt.
"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions.".
| Medienart: |
Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
1992 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
1992 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:8 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
International journal of forecasting - 8(1992), 3 vom: 11. Nov., Seite 433-58 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Manton, K G [VerfasserIn] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 13.07.1993 Date Revised 06.11.2019 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM120199998 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Manton, K G |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population |
| 264 | 1 | |c 1992 | |
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| 500 | |a Date Completed 13.07.1993 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 06.11.2019 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a excerpt | ||
| 520 | |a "A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions." | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Adult | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Age Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Aged | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Americas | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Demographic Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Developed Countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Estimation Technics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Health | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Models, Theoretical | |
| 650 | 4 | |a North America | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Northern America | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Characteristics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Dynamics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Forecast | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Projection | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Size | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Methodology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a United States | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Stallard, E |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Singer, B |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t International journal of forecasting |d 1988 |g 8(1992), 3 vom: 11. Nov., Seite 433-58 |w (DE-627)NLM120199920 |x 0169-2070 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:8 |g year:1992 |g number:3 |g day:11 |g month:11 |g pages:433-58 |
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| 952 | |d 8 |j 1992 |e 3 |b 11 |c 11 |h 433-58 | ||