Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions
OBJECTIVE: To develop methods for estimating the incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data derived in stable endemic conditions.
METHODS: Two methods are proposed. The first method is the Cumulative Incidence and Survival Method which treats HIV-1 prevalence at any given age as the cumulative incidence of new infections at each preceding age, adjusted for mortality. A model for age-specific incidence is fitted to the data using maximum likelihood techniques. The other method is the Constant Prevalence Method whereby the incidence of new infections within a time interval (t-r, t) is calculated as the difference, after adjusting for mortality, between observed prevalence levels at two successive age intervals, whose mean ages are r years apart. The two methods were applied to data from Kampala, Uganda.
RESULTS: Plausible estimates of age-specific and cumulative HIV-1 incidence were obtained from each of the methods. Estimates of HIV-1 incidence are sensitive to assumptions regarding the length of the survival period after infection and the stability of the epidemic.
CONCLUSIONS: Reasonable estimates of HIV-1 incidence can be obtained from prevalence data derived in near-stable conditions. With the Constant Prevalence Method, these conditions may be relaxed if large sample sizes are available and age-reporting is good. The methods proposed could be used in the design and implementation of HIV-1 prevention trials. Cumulative incidence is a better indication of demographic impact than average age-specific incidence.
| Medienart: |
Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
1996 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
1996 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:10 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
AIDS (London, England) - 10(1996), 14 vom: 15. Dez., Seite 1689-97 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Gregson, S [VerfasserIn] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 12.03.1997 Date Revised 08.04.2022 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM089370074 |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| 007 | tu | ||
| 008 | 231222s1996 xx ||||| 00| ||eng c | ||
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| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Gregson, S |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions |
| 264 | 1 | |c 1996 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Band |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 12.03.1997 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 08.04.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVE: To develop methods for estimating the incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data derived in stable endemic conditions | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: Two methods are proposed. The first method is the Cumulative Incidence and Survival Method which treats HIV-1 prevalence at any given age as the cumulative incidence of new infections at each preceding age, adjusted for mortality. A model for age-specific incidence is fitted to the data using maximum likelihood techniques. The other method is the Constant Prevalence Method whereby the incidence of new infections within a time interval (t-r, t) is calculated as the difference, after adjusting for mortality, between observed prevalence levels at two successive age intervals, whose mean ages are r years apart. The two methods were applied to data from Kampala, Uganda | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Plausible estimates of age-specific and cumulative HIV-1 incidence were obtained from each of the methods. Estimates of HIV-1 incidence are sensitive to assumptions regarding the length of the survival period after infection and the stability of the epidemic | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Reasonable estimates of HIV-1 incidence can be obtained from prevalence data derived in near-stable conditions. With the Constant Prevalence Method, these conditions may be relaxed if large sample sizes are available and age-reporting is good. The methods proposed could be used in the design and implementation of HIV-1 prevention trials. Cumulative incidence is a better indication of demographic impact than average age-specific incidence | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Adult | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Africa | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Africa South Of The Sahara | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Age Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Demographic Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Developing Countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Diseases | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Eastern Africa | |
| 650 | 4 | |a English Speaking Africa | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Epidemics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Estimation Technics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hiv Infections | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Incidence | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Measurement | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Characteristics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prevalence | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Methodology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Report | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uganda | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Viral Diseases | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Donnelly, C A |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Parker, C G |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Anderson, R M |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t AIDS (London, England) |d 1988 |g 10(1996), 14 vom: 15. Dez., Seite 1689-97 |w (DE-627)NLM012619280 |x 1473-5571 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:10 |g year:1996 |g number:14 |g day:15 |g month:12 |g pages:1689-97 |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 10 |j 1996 |e 14 |b 15 |c 12 |h 1689-97 | ||