On forecasting mortality
Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs.
| Medienart: |
Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
1988 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
1988 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:66 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
The Milbank quarterly - 66(1988), 3 vom: 25., Seite 482-530 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Olshansky, S J [VerfasserIn] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 23.02.1989 Date Revised 17.11.2004 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM029562589 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Olshansky, S J |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a On forecasting mortality |
| 264 | 1 | |c 1988 | |
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| 500 | |a Date Completed 23.02.1989 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 17.11.2004 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Adult | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Age Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Aged | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Americas | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Behavior | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Critique | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Delivery Of Health Care--cost | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Demographic Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Developed Countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Developing Countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Diseases | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Estimation Technics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Evaluation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Health | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Methodological Studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Models, Theoretical | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Morbidity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mortality | |
| 650 | 4 | |a North America | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Northern America | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population At Risk | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Characteristics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Dynamics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population Forecast | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Methodology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Socioeconomic Factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a United States | |
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| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:66 |g year:1988 |g number:3 |g day:25 |g pages:482-530 |
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