Effect of a wet market on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in China, 2019–2020
Objectives: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) originating from Wuhan spread rapidly throughout China. While its origin remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market with the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated. Methods: Using the daily series of COVID-19 incidence, stratified according to contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for market-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the reporting probability, and the early effects of public health interventions. Results: We estimated R at 0.24 (95% CrI: 0.01–1.38) for market-to-human transmission and 2.37 (95% CrI: 2.08–2.71) for human-to-human transmission during the early spread in China (2019–2020). Moreover, we estimated that the reporting rate for cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 2–34 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying COVID-19 cases. Conclusions: Our R estimate tied to market-to-human transmission had substantial uncertainty, but it was significantly lower compared with the reproduction number driving human-to-human transmission. Our results also suggest that asymptomatic and subclinical infections constitute a substantial component of the COVID-19 morbidity burden..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:97 |
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| Enthalten in: |
International Journal of Infectious Diseases - 97(2020), Seite 96-101 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Kenji Mizumoto [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
doi.org [kostenfrei] |
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| Themen: |
Corona virus: market hazard |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.091 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
DOAJ042918324 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Effect of a wet market on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in China, 2019–2020 |
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| 520 | |a Objectives: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) originating from Wuhan spread rapidly throughout China. While its origin remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market with the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated. Methods: Using the daily series of COVID-19 incidence, stratified according to contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for market-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the reporting probability, and the early effects of public health interventions. Results: We estimated R at 0.24 (95% CrI: 0.01–1.38) for market-to-human transmission and 2.37 (95% CrI: 2.08–2.71) for human-to-human transmission during the early spread in China (2019–2020). Moreover, we estimated that the reporting rate for cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 2–34 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying COVID-19 cases. Conclusions: Our R estimate tied to market-to-human transmission had substantial uncertainty, but it was significantly lower compared with the reproduction number driving human-to-human transmission. Our results also suggest that asymptomatic and subclinical infections constitute a substantial component of the COVID-19 morbidity burden. | ||
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