灰色模型在新疆维吾尔自治区伊宁市肺结核发病率预测中的应用 : = Application of grey model in the prediction of tuberculosis epidemic trend in Yining City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
目的通过建立灰色模型拟合肺结核的发病率,对新疆维吾尔自治区伊宁市肺结核的流行趋势进行预测,为当地结核病防控工作提供参考依据。方法根据2012-2018年新疆维吾尔自治区伊宁市肺结核报告发病资料,应用灰色模型(grey models,简称"GM模型")拟合肺结核的发病率。2012—2018年伊宁市肺结核发病率依次为:151.56/10万(781/515 299)、134.60/10万(721/535 668)、146.51/10万(820/559 691)、152.00/10万(893/587 507)、142.64/10万(782/548 241)、177.85/10万(992/558 860)、196.81/10万(1124/571 122),通过矩阵实验室(Matrix Laboratory,简称"MATLAB")软件(美国MathWorks公司出品)建立一阶微分方程的GM模型,计算后验差比值C和小误差概率P检验GM(1.1)模型的拟合效果。若C值<0.5且P值>0.8,说明模型拟合效果合格,可以进行外推预测;反之,则对模型进行残差修正。结果模型拟合效果合格,模型的平均残差为0.195,平均相对误差为4.553%,小误差概率P值为0.83,后验差比值C值为0.43;2019 2021年伊宁市肺结核发病率预测值分别为203.28/10万、218.87/10万、235.66/10万。结论伊宁市2019—2021年的肺结核发病率可能会以年发病率7.67%的增幅继续增加,应继续加强对结核病的防控工作,降低结核病对人群的危害。.
Objective The grey model was used to fit the incidence of tuberculosis and predict the epidemic trend of tuberculosis in Yining City,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,which provided a basis for local tuberculosis prevention and control.Methods Basing on incidence data of tuberculosis reported in Yining City,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2012—2018,grey models( "GM model") were used to simulate incidences of tuberculosis.The incidences of tuberculosis in Yining City from 2012 to 2018 were 151.56/100 000(781/515 299),134.60/100 000(721/535 668),146.51/100 000(820/559 691),and 152.00/100 000(893/587 507),142.64/100 000(782/548 241),177.85/100 000(992/558 860),196.81/100 000(1124/571 122) respectively.The MATLAB software(produced by Math Works,USA) was used to establish a GM model of first-order variable differential equation.The posterior difference ratio C and small error probability P were calculated to test the fitting of GM(1,1) model.The model fitting effect will be considered as acceptable if the C value is less than 0.5 and the P value is greater than 0.8,then the extrapolation prediction can be performed;otherwise,residual correction should be performed for the model.Results Our model was proved to be fitting well.The average residual of the model was0.195,the average relative error was 4.553%,the small error probability P was 0.83,and the posterior difference ratio C was 0.43.The predicted incidences of tuberculosis in Yining City from 2019 to 2021 were 203.28/100 000,218.87/100 000 and 235.66/100 000 respectively.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in Yining City from2019 to 2021 may continue to increase with an annual increase rate of 7.67%.It is necessary to continue strengthening prevention and control of tuberculosis and reduce the harm of tuberculosis to the population..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2019-12-10 2019 |
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| Erschienen: |
2019-12-10 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2019 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Zhong guo fang lao za zhi - (2019), 12 vom: 10. Dez., Seite 1314-1317 Original Letters: Enthalten in 中国防痨杂志 (DE-600)2997063-5 (DE-600)2997063-5 北京市 |
| Reihe: |
China Academic Journals (CAJ), E, 医药卫生科技 = Medicine & Public Health |
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| Sprache: |
Chinesisch |
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| Weiterer Titel: |
Application of grey model in the prediction of tuberculosis epidemic trend in Yining City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
陈之源 [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
oversea.cnki.net [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Author info:CHEN Zhi-yuan;CHANG Yu-xue;Yeerzhati·Wuwat;ZHOU Yu-lan;WANG Yue;MA Zhi;Bahetinur·Xiaokracti;XIANG Yang;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
CAJ648732274 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a 灰色模型在新疆维吾尔自治区伊宁市肺结核发病率预测中的应用 |b = Application of grey model in the prediction of tuberculosis epidemic trend in Yining City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region |
| 246 | 3 | 1 | |a Application of grey model in the prediction of tuberculosis epidemic trend in Yining City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2019-12-10 | |
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| 500 | |a Author info:CHEN Zhi-yuan;CHANG Yu-xue;Yeerzhati·Wuwat;ZHOU Yu-lan;WANG Yue;MA Zhi;Bahetinur·Xiaokracti;XIANG Yang;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University | ||
| 520 | |a 目的通过建立灰色模型拟合肺结核的发病率,对新疆维吾尔自治区伊宁市肺结核的流行趋势进行预测,为当地结核病防控工作提供参考依据。方法根据2012-2018年新疆维吾尔自治区伊宁市肺结核报告发病资料,应用灰色模型(grey models,简称"GM模型")拟合肺结核的发病率。2012—2018年伊宁市肺结核发病率依次为:151.56/10万(781/515 299)、134.60/10万(721/535 668)、146.51/10万(820/559 691)、152.00/10万(893/587 507)、142.64/10万(782/548 241)、177.85/10万(992/558 860)、196.81/10万(1124/571 122),通过矩阵实验室(Matrix Laboratory,简称"MATLAB")软件(美国MathWorks公司出品)建立一阶微分方程的GM模型,计算后验差比值C和小误差概率P检验GM(1.1)模型的拟合效果。若C值<0.5且P值>0.8,说明模型拟合效果合格,可以进行外推预测;反之,则对模型进行残差修正。结果模型拟合效果合格,模型的平均残差为0.195,平均相对误差为4.553%,小误差概率P值为0.83,后验差比值C值为0.43;2019 2021年伊宁市肺结核发病率预测值分别为203.28/10万、218.87/10万、235.66/10万。结论伊宁市2019—2021年的肺结核发病率可能会以年发病率7.67%的增幅继续增加,应继续加强对结核病的防控工作,降低结核病对人群的危害。 | ||
| 520 | |a Objective The grey model was used to fit the incidence of tuberculosis and predict the epidemic trend of tuberculosis in Yining City,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,which provided a basis for local tuberculosis prevention and control.Methods Basing on incidence data of tuberculosis reported in Yining City,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2012—2018,grey models( "GM model") were used to simulate incidences of tuberculosis.The incidences of tuberculosis in Yining City from 2012 to 2018 were 151.56/100 000(781/515 299),134.60/100 000(721/535 668),146.51/100 000(820/559 691),and 152.00/100 000(893/587 507),142.64/100 000(782/548 241),177.85/100 000(992/558 860),196.81/100 000(1124/571 122) respectively.The MATLAB software(produced by Math Works,USA) was used to establish a GM model of first-order variable differential equation.The posterior difference ratio C and small error probability P were calculated to test the fitting of GM(1,1) model.The model fitting effect will be considered as acceptable if the C value is less than 0.5 and the P value is greater than 0.8,then the extrapolation prediction can be performed;otherwise,residual correction should be performed for the model.Results Our model was proved to be fitting well.The average residual of the model was0.195,the average relative error was 4.553%,the small error probability P was 0.83,and the posterior difference ratio C was 0.43.The predicted incidences of tuberculosis in Yining City from 2019 to 2021 were 203.28/100 000,218.87/100 000 and 235.66/100 000 respectively.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in Yining City from2019 to 2021 may continue to increase with an annual increase rate of 7.67%.It is necessary to continue strengthening prevention and control of tuberculosis and reduce the harm of tuberculosis to the population. | ||
| 610 | 2 | 4 | |a 新疆医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室 |
| 610 | 2 | 4 | |a 新疆维吾尔自治区伊犁州伊宁市疾病预防控制中心 |
| 650 | 4 | |a 流行病学与防疫 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 预防医学、卫生学 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 医药、卫生 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 结核病 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 内科学 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Preventive Medicine and Hygiene | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Infectious Disease | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Disease of Respiratory System | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 医药卫生科技 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Medicine & Public Health | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 结核,肺 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 发病率 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 流行病学研究 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 模型,统计学 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 预测 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 小地区分析 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Tuberculosis,pulmonary | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Incidence | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Epiderniologic studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Models,statistical | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Small-area analysis | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 常玉雪 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 叶尔扎提·吾瓦特 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 周玉兰 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 王玥 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 马志 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 巴合提努尔·肖克拉提 |4 oth | |
| 700 | 0 | |a 向阳 |4 oth | |
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