Closed-form solutions for optimal social distancing in a SIR model of COVID-19 suppression / Reyer Gerlagh
I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high costs of social distancing in comparison to health costs of the disease; it separates public versus private benefits of social distancing, and determines the required level of group immunity for relaxing social distance intervention. I extend the model with heterogeneous population for preferences over social contacts, health costs, and transmission. Heterogeneity in transmission intensity offers most opportunities for reduced costs under a differentiated social distancing policy..
| Medienart: |
E-Book |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
May 2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
Munich, Germany: CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute ; May 2020 |
| Reihe: |
CESifo working paper - no. 8335 (2020) |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Gerlagh, Reyer, 1969- [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
www.cesifo.org [kostenfrei] |
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| Umfang: |
1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten) |
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| Weitere IDs: |
10419/219153 |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
1700110918 |
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| 520 | |a I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high costs of social distancing in comparison to health costs of the disease; it separates public versus private benefits of social distancing, and determines the required level of group immunity for relaxing social distance intervention. I extend the model with heterogeneous population for preferences over social contacts, health costs, and transmission. Heterogeneity in transmission intensity offers most opportunities for reduced costs under a differentiated social distancing policy. | ||
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