Covid and social distancing with a heterogenous population / Miltiadis Makris
Motivated by the Covid-19 epidemic, we analyse a SIR model of an epidemic but with endogenous social distancing, and calibrate it to UK data to study various hypothetical scenarios of government intervention regarding social distancing. We explicitly take into account that (a) there is heterogeneity in the population in terms of infection-induced fatality rates and thereby private decisions on social distancing, and that (b), due to limited resources available for health services, mortality rates may depend on the stock of infected people who become seriously ill because of the infection. Simulations based on our calibrated model suggest that lockdown policies that shut down some of the essential sectors have a stronger impact on the death toll than on the evolution of infections and the level of "herd immunity" compared to policies that shut down non-essential sectors, and vice versa. Finally, there might not be an after-wave after lockdown policies that shut down some of the essential sectors are lifted..
| Medienart: |
E-Book |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
[2020] |
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| Erschienen: |
Canterbury, Kent: School of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent ; 2020 |
| Ausgabe: |
This draft: 16 May 2020 |
| Reihe: |
School of Economics discussion papers / University of Kent - KDPE 2002 (April 2020) |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Makrēs, Miltiadēs [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
www.kent.ac.uk [kostenfrei] |
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| Umfang: |
1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) ; Illustrationen |
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| Weitere IDs: |
10419/246682 |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
1696935857 |
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| 250 | |a This draft: 16 May 2020 | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Canterbury, Kent |b School of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent |c [2020] | |
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| 520 | |a Motivated by the Covid-19 epidemic, we analyse a SIR model of an epidemic but with endogenous social distancing, and calibrate it to UK data to study various hypothetical scenarios of government intervention regarding social distancing. We explicitly take into account that (a) there is heterogeneity in the population in terms of infection-induced fatality rates and thereby private decisions on social distancing, and that (b), due to limited resources available for health services, mortality rates may depend on the stock of infected people who become seriously ill because of the infection. Simulations based on our calibrated model suggest that lockdown policies that shut down some of the essential sectors have a stronger impact on the death toll than on the evolution of infections and the level of "herd immunity" compared to policies that shut down non-essential sectors, and vice versa. Finally, there might not be an after-wave after lockdown policies that shut down some of the essential sectors are lifted. | ||
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| 982 | |2 26 |1 00 |x DE-206 |8 56 |a Social Distancing | ||
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