Modelling trachoma post 2020: Opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities which have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem.Methods Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise.Results We demonstrate that for districts which were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after 3 rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets.Conclusion Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals..

Medienart:

Preprint

Erscheinungsjahr:

2020

Erschienen:

2020

Enthalten in:

bioRxiv.org - (2020) vom: 31. Okt. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2020

Sprache:

Englisch

Beteiligte Personen:

Borlase, Anna [VerfasserIn]
Blumberg, Seth [VerfasserIn]
Callahan, E Kelly [VerfasserIn]
Deiner, Michael S [VerfasserIn]
Nash, Scott D [VerfasserIn]
Porco, Travis C [VerfasserIn]
Solomon, Anthony W [VerfasserIn]
Lietman, Thomas M [VerfasserIn]
Prada, Joaquin M [VerfasserIn]
Hollingsworth, T. Dèirdre [VerfasserIn]

Links:

Volltext [kostenfrei]

doi:

10.1101/2020.10.27.20219618

funding:

Förderinstitution / Projekttitel:

PPN (Katalog-ID):

XBI019234368