The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS- CoV-2 transmission in China
Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 spread have been implemented in several countries with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogenous and difficult to interpret. Here we describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown, and post-lockdown period to quantify the transmission impact of relaxing interventions via changes in age-specific contact patterns. We estimate that the mean number of contacts increased 5%-17% since the end of the lockdown but are still 3-7 times lower than their pre-pandemic levels. We find that post-lockdown contact patterns in China are still sufficiently low to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control. We also find that the impact of school interventions depends non-linearly on the share of other activities being resumed. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproductive number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission. Moving forward, to control COVID-19 spread without resorting to a lockdown, it will be key to dose relaxation in social mixing in the community and strengthen targeted interventions.One Sentence Summary Social contacts estimated in the post-lockdown period in four large Chinese cities are not sufficient to sustain local SARS-CoV-2 transmission..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
bioRxiv.org - (2021) vom: 25. Juni Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2021 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Zhang, Juanjuan [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2020.08.03.20167056 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XBI018502067 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 spread have been implemented in several countries with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogenous and difficult to interpret. Here we describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown, and post-lockdown period to quantify the transmission impact of relaxing interventions via changes in age-specific contact patterns. We estimate that the mean number of contacts increased 5%-17% since the end of the lockdown but are still 3-7 times lower than their pre-pandemic levels. We find that post-lockdown contact patterns in China are still sufficiently low to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control. We also find that the impact of school interventions depends non-linearly on the share of other activities being resumed. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproductive number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission. Moving forward, to control COVID-19 spread without resorting to a lockdown, it will be key to dose relaxation in social mixing in the community and strengthen targeted interventions.One Sentence Summary Social contacts estimated in the post-lockdown period in four large Chinese cities are not sufficient to sustain local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Litvinova, Maria |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liang, Yuxia |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zheng, Wen |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Shi, Huilin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vespignani, Alessandro |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Viboud, Cecile |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ajelli, Marco |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yu, Hongjie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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