Quantifying human mixing patterns in Chinese provinces outside Hubei after the 2020 lockdown was lifted
Contact patterns play a key role in the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in human populations. During the COVID-19 pandemic the regular contact patterns of the population has been disrupted due to social distancing both imposed by the authorities and individual choices. Here we present the results of a contact survey conducted in Chinese provinces outside Hubei in March 2020, right after lockdowns were lifted. We then leveraged the estimated mixing patterns to calibrate a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which was used to estimate different metrics of COVID-19 burden by age. Study participants reported 2.3 contacts per day (IQR: 1.0-3.0) and the mean per-contact duration was 7.0 hours (IQR: 1.0-10.0). No significant differences were observed between provinces, the number of recorded contacts did not show a clear-cut trend by age, and most of the recorded contacts occurred with family members (about 78%). Our findings suggest that, despite the lockdown was no longer in place at the time of the survey, people were still heavily limiting their contacts as compared to the pre-pandemic situation. Moreover, the obtained modeling results highlight the importance of considering age-contact patterns to estimate COVID-19 burden..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
arXiv.org - (2021) vom: 27. Nov. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2021 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Zhao, Yining [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XAR033105774 |
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| 520 | |a Contact patterns play a key role in the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in human populations. During the COVID-19 pandemic the regular contact patterns of the population has been disrupted due to social distancing both imposed by the authorities and individual choices. Here we present the results of a contact survey conducted in Chinese provinces outside Hubei in March 2020, right after lockdowns were lifted. We then leveraged the estimated mixing patterns to calibrate a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which was used to estimate different metrics of COVID-19 burden by age. Study participants reported 2.3 contacts per day (IQR: 1.0-3.0) and the mean per-contact duration was 7.0 hours (IQR: 1.0-10.0). No significant differences were observed between provinces, the number of recorded contacts did not show a clear-cut trend by age, and most of the recorded contacts occurred with family members (about 78%). Our findings suggest that, despite the lockdown was no longer in place at the time of the survey, people were still heavily limiting their contacts as compared to the pre-pandemic situation. Moreover, the obtained modeling results highlight the importance of considering age-contact patterns to estimate COVID-19 burden. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a ODell, Samantha |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yang, Xiaohan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liao, Jingyi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yang, Kexin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fumanelli, Laura |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Lv, Jiancheng |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ajelli, Marco |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liu, Quan-Hui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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