Early estimation of the epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak in Iran : 19 Feb-15 March, 2020
©2020 RIGLD, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases..
AIM: To estimate the epidemiological parameters related to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran.
BACKGROUND: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) is essential to support and inform public health decision-making in different communities including Iran.
METHODS: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. Then, we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation.
RESULTS: We estimated the R0 at 2.11 (95% CI, 1.87-2.50) and the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI: 59,263 -152,212) by 15 March. Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1.2% (95% CI: 1.1-1.4). The latent period estimation was 4.24 (95% CI: 2.84-6.65). We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction.
CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak to reach R0<1. Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effective measures for the treatment of symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended because of low ascertainment rate and large number of infected cases. We additionally recommend that traffic restriction be combined with other controlling measures.
| Medienart: |
Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:13 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Gastroenterology and hepatology from bed to bench - 13(2020), Suppl1 vom: 27., Seite S134-S138 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Olfatifar, Meysam [VerfasserIn] |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 19.09.2023 published: Print Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM32144647X |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Early estimation of the epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak in Iran |b 19 Feb-15 March, 2020 |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 19.09.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a ©2020 RIGLD, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases. | ||
| 520 | |a AIM: To estimate the epidemiological parameters related to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) is essential to support and inform public health decision-making in different communities including Iran | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. Then, we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: We estimated the R0 at 2.11 (95% CI, 1.87-2.50) and the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI: 59,263 -152,212) by 15 March. Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1.2% (95% CI: 1.1-1.4). The latent period estimation was 4.24 (95% CI: 2.84-6.65). We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak to reach R0<1. Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effective measures for the treatment of symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended because of low ascertainment rate and large number of infected cases. We additionally recommend that traffic restriction be combined with other controlling measures | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Epidemiological parameters | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Iran | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Outbreak | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Alali, Walid Q |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Houri, Hamidreza |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Babaee, Ebrahim |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Seifollahi, Romian |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sharifian, Afsaneh |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zali, Mohammad Reza |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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