Modeling analysis of COVID-19 based on morbidity data in Anhui, China

Since the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan Hubei, China, was reported in December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the country and overseas. The first case in Anhui, a province of China, was reported on January 10, 2020. In the field of infectious diseases, modeling, evaluating and predicting the rate of disease transmission is very important for epidemic prevention and control. Different intervention measures have been implemented starting from different time nodes in the country and Anhui, the epidemic may be divided into three stages for January 10 to February 11, 2020, namely. We adopted interrupted time series method and develop an SEI/QR model to analyse the data. Our results displayed that the lockdown of Wuhan implemented on January 23, 2020 reduced the contact rate of epidemic transmission in Anhui province by 48.37%, and centralized quarantine management policy for close contacts in Anhui reduced the contact rate by an additional 36.97%. At the same time, the estimated basic reproduction number gradually decreased from the initial 2.9764 to 0.8667 and then to 0.5725. We conclude that the Wuhan lockdown and the centralized quarantine management policy in Anhui played a crucial role in the timely and effective mitigation of the epidemic in Anhui. One merit of this work is the adoption of morbidity data which may reflect the epidemic more accurately and promptly. Our estimated parameters are largely in line with the World Health Organization estimates and previous studies.

Medienart:

E-Artikel

Erscheinungsjahr:

2020

Erschienen:

2020

Enthalten in:

Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:17

Enthalten in:

Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE - 17(2020), 4 vom: 25. März, Seite 2842-2852

Sprache:

Englisch

Beteiligte Personen:

Tian, Jing Jing [VerfasserIn]
Wu, Jia Bing [VerfasserIn]
Bao, Yun Ting [VerfasserIn]
Weng, Xiao Yu [VerfasserIn]
Shi, Lei [VerfasserIn]
Liu, Bin Bin [VerfasserIn]
Yu, Xin Ya [VerfasserIn]
Qi, Long Xing [VerfasserIn]
Liu, Zhi Rong [VerfasserIn]

Links:

Volltext

Themen:

Basic reproduction number
COVID-19
Interrupted time series analysis
Journal Article
Mathematical model
Mitigation
Morbidity
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Anmerkungen:

Date Completed 09.10.2020

Date Revised 18.12.2020

published: Print

Citation Status MEDLINE

doi:

10.3934/mbe.2020158

funding:

Förderinstitution / Projekttitel:

PPN (Katalog-ID):

NLM315581956