Questionable research practices may have little effect on replicability
© 2020, Ulrich and Miller..
This article examines why many studies fail to replicate statistically significant published results. We address this issue within a general statistical framework that also allows us to include various questionable research practices (QRPs) that are thought to reduce replicability. The analyses indicate that the base rate of true effects is the major factor that determines the replication rate of scientific results. Specifically, for purely statistical reasons, replicability is low in research domains where true effects are rare (e.g., search for effective drugs in pharmacology). This point is under-appreciated in current scientific and media discussions of replicability, which often attribute poor replicability mainly to QRPs.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:9 |
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| Enthalten in: |
eLife - 9(2020) vom: 15. Sept. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Ulrich, Rolf [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Base rate of true effects |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 23.02.2021 Date Revised 23.02.2021 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.7554/eLife.58237 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM315020954 |
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| 520 | |a This article examines why many studies fail to replicate statistically significant published results. We address this issue within a general statistical framework that also allows us to include various questionable research practices (QRPs) that are thought to reduce replicability. The analyses indicate that the base rate of true effects is the major factor that determines the replication rate of scientific results. Specifically, for purely statistical reasons, replicability is low in research domains where true effects are rare (e.g., search for effective drugs in pharmacology). This point is under-appreciated in current scientific and media discussions of replicability, which often attribute poor replicability mainly to QRPs | ||
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