Dynamical response of multi-patch, flux-based models to the input of infected people : Epidemic response to initiated events
Copyright © 2008 Elsevier B.V. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved..
The time course of an epidemic can be modeled using the differential equations that describe the spread of disease and by dividing people into "patches" of different sizes with the migration of people between these patches. We used these multi-patch, flux-based models to determine how the time course of infected and susceptible populations depends on the disease parameters, the geometry of the migrations between the patches, and the addition of infected people into a patch. We found that there are significantly longer lived transients and additional "ancillary" epidemics when the reproductive rate R is closer to 1, as would be typical of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and bird flu, than when R is closer to 10, as would be typical of measles. In addition we show, both analytical and numerical, how the time delay between the injection of infected people into a patch and the corresponding initial epidemic that it produces depends on R.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2008 |
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| Erschienen: |
2008 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:372 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Physics letters. A - 372(2008), 30 vom: 21. Juli, Seite 5017-5025 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Rho, Young-Ah [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 29.03.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.physleta.2008.05.065 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM308729927 |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 29.03.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2008 Elsevier B.V. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a The time course of an epidemic can be modeled using the differential equations that describe the spread of disease and by dividing people into "patches" of different sizes with the migration of people between these patches. We used these multi-patch, flux-based models to determine how the time course of infected and susceptible populations depends on the disease parameters, the geometry of the migrations between the patches, and the addition of infected people into a patch. We found that there are significantly longer lived transients and additional "ancillary" epidemics when the reproductive rate R is closer to 1, as would be typical of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and bird flu, than when R is closer to 10, as would be typical of measles. In addition we show, both analytical and numerical, how the time delay between the injection of infected people into a patch and the corresponding initial epidemic that it produces depends on R | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Annual driving | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Computer modeling and simulation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Diseases | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Epidemic models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Flux based multi-patch models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ordinary differential equations | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Reproductive rate | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Spatial heterogeneity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Transient time | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liebovitch, Larry S |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schwartz, Ira B |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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